Though Alabama has gone to Republicans in every presidential election since 1976 and is likely to do so again this November, the state’s place on the primary calendar gives it clout in deciding the Democratic nominee for president.
For the second consecutive Democratic primary cycle, Alabama will vote on Super Tuesday, when people of 11 states, American Samoa and Democrats abroad will cast their ballots.
In three of the four Democratic primaries dating back to 1992, Alabama voted during the first week of June. In each of those three primaries, the presumptive nominee was already determined by the time Alabamians cast their votes.
Alabama’s voting date was moved to February in the 2008 primary, and the Yellowhammer State saw record voter turnout that year.
More than 535,000 ballots were cast in the contest featuring then-Senators Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, which was more than a 60 percent increase in turnout from the 2004 primary.
Nearly half of the turnout in the 2008 Alabama primary was made up of African-American voters, and Obama defeated Clinton by a wide margin in that demographic to win the popular vote by more than 75,000.
However, Alabama’s 52 delegates are split proportionally, so Obama carried only 27 delegates to Clinton’s 25.
Many of the same voters who propelled Obama to victory in 2008 appear primed to carry the former secretary of state to a win in Alabama next month.
Sen. Bernie Sanders, D-Vt., Clinton’s only viable challenger, has built a campaign that appeals to a great number of young voters, and he has also made inroads with Latino voters in recent weeks. But the one demographic Sanders has struggled to reach — African-Americans — constitutes a significant portion of the electorate throughout the Deep South, including Alabama.
According to a Feb. 17 survey of likely primary voters done by Public Policy Polling, Clinton leads at 59 percent, Sanders has 31 percent and 10 percent are undecided.
Among white voters, only 1 percentage point separates the two. Sanders holds his own among Latino voters, as Clinton has a 50-39 advantage, but Hispanics only make up 3.9 percent of Alabama’s population, according to the 2010 U.S. Census.
To stay competitive in Alabama, Sanders will need support from African-American voters, who make up 26.8 percent of the state’s population.
In the poll referenced above, 67 percent of likely African-American voters support Clinton, while Sanders holds only 22 percent. Clinton also has the endorsements of the Alabama New South Coalition and the Alabama Democratic Conference, a group founded in 1960 to unify African-American voters in the state.
o candidates on the ballot, they will likely be the only two to qualify for delegates under Democratic Party nominee selection rules.
Those rules, which were adopted in 2006, state a candidate must carry 15 percent of the popular vote to receive delegates. Former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley dropped out of the race after the Iowa caucuses, and Roque “Rocky” De La Fuente has failed to gain traction on the national stage.
There will also, as always, be an uncommitted option on the ballot. An uncommitted vote simply counts as a vote for the Democratic Party, not a particular candidate.
In the off chance there are more than 15,000 uncommitted votes (there were only 2,663 in 2008), an undecided delegate will be sent to the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia from July 25–28.
So often in politics, timing is everything.
With Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada, the first three states to hold Democratic primaries and caucuses, totaling only 102 delegates, Clinton and Sanders — who are nearly tied at 52-51 apiece — have a long road ahead to the nomination. Even after South Carolina voters cast their ballots on Saturday, Feb. 27, more than 90 percent of the 2,383 delegates needed to win the party’s nomination will be up for grabs.
The candidates will vie for 1,034 delegates, more than 40 percent of those needed for nomination, on Super Tuesday, including Alabama’s 52 pledged and eight unpledged delegates.
So in 2016, unlike some primaries past, a vote for the Democratic nominee for president cast in Alabama is a vote that matters.
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