Patience is running out in Auburn after Gus Malzahn's team blew a 20-point lead in Baton Rouge, and while it may not be the classiest move, getting rid of Malzahn now is better for the program.
Before we get into this, I love Auburn and I love Auburn football. I always have and always will support this program, but five years of this Malzahn experiment is too much for me. If Auburn does fire Malzahn, it won't be until after the Iron Bowl at the earliest. The purpose of this column isn't to tell you that Malzahn is going to be fired soon, but that he should.
Malzahn was hired as the head coach in 2013 after Auburn fired Gene Chizik, under whom Malzahn served as offensive coordinator. Auburn turned to Malzahn after his one-year absence from the team during which he served as head coach at Arkansas State.
The first season of the Malzahn experiment went better than anyone could have hoped. The program turned around from a 3-9 season to an SEC championship and three points away from another national championship, while running back Tre Mason was a Heisman finalist. That season also possibly the two most unforgettable plays in Auburn (and college) football history against Georgia and Alabama.
In the years that have passed since Tre Mason left the Plains, Auburn has, for the most part, handled business against the teams it was supposed to beat. After a 5-0 start in 2014, Auburn appeared back on track and was up to No. 2 in the AP poll. Then the Tigers lost to Mississippi State. The season still had hope, as the Tigers were No. 5 with one loss. However, Auburn lost three of its last four regular season games and lost the Outback Bowl to Wisconsin.
After starting 2015 ranked No. 6, Auburn needed overtime to beat FCS opponent Jacksonville State and went 2-6 in SEC play while ending the regular season 6-6. A trip to the glorious Birmingham Bowl for a win over Memphis gave Auburn fans a little bit of hope after a poor season that saw the Tigers go from No. 6 in the country to last place in the SEC west.
In 2016, Auburn lost two of its first three games to Clemson and Texas A&M. After its dramatic win over LSU, which was mostly due to Danny Etling's poor clock management, Auburn won six straight games. With a No. 8 ranking, the Tigers had hope once again. A loss at an unranked Georgia, at Alabama, and to Oklahoma in the Sugar Bowl resulted in an 8-5 finish.
All three of those seasons had the same thing in common: there was hope. Each of the last three seasons, Auburn made it to No. 2, No. 6 and No. 8 in the country with the potential of making the college football playoff. Each year, fans were let down by poor performances in big games.
Auburn looked good against the teams it was supposed to beat, which caused the high rankings. But in the toss-up games that you have to win to win championships, the Tigers always fell apart.
Consider Auburn's three biggest rivals: Alabama, Georgia, and LSU. Since the beginning of the 2014 season, Auburn has gone 2-2 against LSU with one of those wins being the horrible clock management of Etling. Against Georgia and Alabama, Auburn hasn't won a single game. The Tigers are also 1-2 in bowl games in that time, and 0-2 against Clemson, Auburn's biggest out-of-conference rival.
Malzahn has done a great job against bad teams. This year the Tigers played fantastically against Missouri and Mississippi State. The second half performance against Ole Miss was dreadful, but the first half was good enough to still win convincingly.
Big games have been miserable under the current leadership. The last time Auburn won a big game was 2014 at Ole Miss when Laquon Treadwell fumbled on the one yard line. Auburn went 1-4 the rest of that season.
Obviously there is cause for concern here, and most would say Malzahn should be fired if Auburn loses to Georgia and Alabama. But why do I think he should be fired now?
Auburn is an amazing football program. The school is located in the center of three of the most talent-rich football states in the country (Alabama, Georgia and Florida). The staff has recruited amazing players over recent years with the potential for amazing seasons.
It isn't the fact that Malzahn has lost at least four games the last three seasons. It's the fact that Auburn has had the potential to make it to the college football playoff each of those years, and not only have they fallen short by losing two or three games. Those teams have fallen way short of expectations, failing to win double digit games each season.
Let's step away from Auburn for a second, and imagine a football program in the center of a talent-rich region with fantastic recruiting classes and championship expectations every season. Failure to win big games and losses in games in which they were favored resulted in collapses almost every season, while a few bright seasons early in the head coach's career kept him around in hopes that that success would return.
That description could apply directly to Auburn right now, but is an accurate description of Georgia under Mark Richt. The Bulldogs won two SEC championships in Richt's first five seasons, but went ten seasons under Richt without an SEC championships after 2005.
I bring this up because Auburn's athletic program is in danger of falling into the same situation. Malzahn had a great first season, and was great as an offensive coordinator in Auburn. The program is familiar with Malzahn, and is keeping him around in hopes that 2013 will happen again. The hard truth is that 2013 isn't going to happen again, because Malzahn isn't an offensive guru anymore. If Auburn keeps Malzahn around hoping for 2013, we will be in the same place in 2027 talking about how Auburn hasn't won an SEC championship since 2013 but of course Gus will bring us back to contention.
While Chip Lindsey is the offensive coordinator, questions are still raised about who really calls the plays. Regardless of who is calling them, this is a Malzahn-style offense that the rest of the SEC has become accustomed to defending.
It worked in 2013 because it was new, and teams didn't know where the ball would go when you have Tre Mason, Nick Marshall, Sammie Coates and a plethora of other people capable of scoring. In its fifth year, this style of offense has worn out and teams know how to defend it. Auburn may be able to strike in the first quarter, but the other team's defense always makes halftime adjustments and Auburn's offense never adjusts.
In the collapse against LSU, Auburn had 28 first down plays. 23 of those plays we runs. It is way too predictable of a gameplan. In Auburn's last six losses, it has totaled 15 points in the second half. Three of those games were second-half shutouts.
Gus Malzahn had a special touch as offensive coordinator, but his shine is lost. By the half of the last three seasons and this season, Auburn has been in a place where the best option is to say "maybe next year". That mentality is why Auburn hasn't won more than eight games in the last three seasons and why it doesn't look like that will change this season.
Auburn needs to get out of this complacent culture. The difference between firing Malzahn now and waiting to see how he finishes is the message it sends to the next coach. If Malzahn gets fired after losing to Georgia, Alabama and possibly Texas A&M, the message sent to the next coach is that if you lose four games four seasons in a row you get fired. Firing him now would send the message that if you ruin our chances at a national title, after all of the resources and talent you were given, then you will get fired.
Auburn was in every talk about national title contenders before the LSU game. Now Auburn is in no such talks. That game ruined the opportunity at a title, and if Malzahn were to get fired now, the next coach would understand that the expectations are for a title, not just for a 9-3 or 8-4 season.
Georgia fired Mark Richt after two 10-3 seasons in a row. That message showed Kirby Smart that the program expects more than double digit wins. Georgia wants championships, and Smart got that message and seems to be delivering so far this season.
Auburn needs to send the same message, and get rid of Malzahn now.
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