Some friends go road tripping together. Others hang out on the weekends.
Me? I get to know my friends better by writing mailbags.
Nearly 2,500 words later, I feel like we're all a lot closer. Let's talk some Auburn football. Thanks to those who submitted questions for this week's Plainsman Mailbag. Submissions for next week's will open Sunday.
From @PeterSanto29 on Twitter:
1. How does Jarrett Stidham look as an NFL prospect compared to some of the other quarterbacks who should enter the draft after the season?
Most assumed a polished, now-veteran Stidham would coast to his second straight 3,000-yard season.
Much to the chagrin of Chip Lindsey and the Auburn offense, the mistakes that plagued Stidham's consistency at the tail-end of 2017 have crept into this season.
The same issues remain: The junior quarterback goes through his first progression, followed by his second, maybe, then drops his eyes to the opposing defensive line inevitably barreling toward him. Half of that can likely be blamed on Auburn's inexperienced offensive line — arguably the worst position group on the team through four weeks.
If he has a clean pocket that allows him to put his signature zip on the ball, Stidham can make any throw on the field besides the deep ball, where he's been horribly inconsistent with bad reads and overthrows.
Of the big three for next year's draft — Stidham, Oregon's Justin Herbert and Missouri's Drew Lock — Stidham is off to the worst start for his 2018 squad. However, many project Stidham will be a better NFL quarterback than a college one. However, until that gun-slinger mentality from mid-2017 returns, I'm not buying it.
From @NathanA86364097 on Twitter:
2. Is the offensive line gonna change if they have another bad game this weekend?
Southern Miss' run defense has been solid against its lowly competition, but don't expect Auburn to experience many issues on homecoming.
The Tigers should rack up rushing yards as they please and have a clean pocket for Stidham. If neither of those offensive landmarks are met, there will be major reason for concern.
I don't know if that concern would lead to an offensive line shakeup, though. New center Nick Brahms graded among the leaders of the O-line last week, and the other four spots would experience a significant downgrade, at least talent/experience-wise, if backups were to be given a shot.
An offensive line grows because of group experience. This is a new position coach in J.B. Grimes that had to make do with a line implementing four new starters. Rust is to be expected.
From @Trey_Bruce on Twitter:
3. What are the chances that Auburn lands Kelly Bryant, and should we want that?
Obviously, newly minted grad transfer target Kelly Bryant hasn't been running about telling random Twitter users his top 5 schools for next season. So everything right now is strictly projection-based.
However, Auburn makes sense for the former Clemson quarterback. Whether it be Cam Newton, Nick Marshall or Stidham, Gus Malzahn's reputation of developing transfer quarterbacks into stars is well documented. And Bryant definitely knows that.
Now, should Auburn want Bryant? In terms of face value right now, Bryant is far-and-above more touted than Auburn's four contenders for the starting position next season (Malik Willis, Joey Gatewood, Bo Nix and Cord Sandberg). Bryant brings the stereotypical Malzahn dual-threat aspect, as do Willis and Gatewood.
How much better would a transferring Bryant be than a Willis with a whole offseason of reps with the first team? Not saying Auburn would turn away a quarterback with Playoff experience and a 16-2 career record. But Bryant may be weary of entering a heated race under center where he could lose out on the starting job again.
In my opinion, Auburn will be in Bryant's top 5. Other sensible choices include Arkansas (connection with Chad Morris) and Oregon, West Virginia and Florida (all will need a new quarterback next year). However, all 129 FBS programs other than Clemson would be crazy to not take in a dynamic playmaker like Bryant. So it's up to him.
From @iCJEllis on Twitter:
4. Last week, Gus talked about being more of a pass first offense, yet only attempted 22 passes for a whopping 6 yards per completion. Do you think that was all words or do you think that Gus just didn’t want to show much since they were going to win the game anyways?
Probably half-and-half. Malzahn loves to tease offensive innovation, then proceed to revert to the mundane offense Auburn fans have grown to loathe.
In terms of aggressiveness, the Tiger offense needs to throw more after big plays. Every week, Malzahn is asked why he always runs a telegraphed dive up the gut after first-down plays. Your guess is as good as mine, because it hasn't worked well yet.
Malzahn will likely continue to call plays conservatively this week, saving up for the Bulldogs in Starkville. If Auburn's offense struggles against Miss State, that's OK. That's a great defense. But the excuses will really start to run dry if Stidham and company come out with an inept gameplan that results in negative plays and Stidham scrambling for his life.
From @sparks_photos on Twitter:
5. Where has the creativity gone in Auburn’s offense?
I would argue that Malzahn tries to get fancy every game, it just ends poorly after horrible execution.
The Auburn offense remains stuck in a reality where fullback passes and slow-developing RPOs seem like worthwhile additions to a playbook.
The Tigers have talent across the board at the skill positions, probably more than most teams in the conference. Behind a brand-new offensive line, it will take some time to work out the kinks and learn how to use each weapon effectively.
Unfortunately for Auburn, it hasn't learned yet, resulting in a near-loss to Washington, an awful closeout against LSU and one of Malzahn's worst offensive showings against Arkansas.
Again, if Stidham returns to his mid-2017 form — when, in true Texas fashion, the quarterback was slinging it all over the field with aggressiveness — Auburn will be fine until Georgia and Alabama.
But the run game needs to be set up first, which isn't happening behind this O-line. That's why Malzahn keeps searching for ways around it, evident in his "pass-first" approach.
6. What could Auburn do differently to increase Kam Martin’s production at RB?
Play. To. His. Strengths.
The problem with Auburn's two-, maybe three-headed attack in the backfield is that Lindsey and Malzahn run them all the same way. JaTarvious Whitlow and Shaun Shivers can bang in the middle — that much has been proven. But the slimmer Martin can't, but that hasn't kept Auburn from trying.
On sweeps and edge runs this season, when Martin can get a guard pulling in front with a chance to accelerate, he's been productive. Malzahn said postgame last Saturday that Auburn will continue to analyze that approach and use it if they see fit.
So, the simple answer is that Auburn has identified where Martin succeeds, and plans to make good on that going forward.
7. How long before we see Whitlow, a HS standout at QB, throw?
You've got to think this facet of Whitlow's game makes Malzahn pretty happy.
Kerryon Johnson finished his Auburn career with a pair of jump-pass touchdowns out of the Wildcat, and he didn't even play QB in high school. Those plays have likely been added to Whitlow's arsenal, but Auburn can really dive into its bag of tricks with Whitlow's deep-ball ability.
In a perfect world for the Tigers, Whitlow would take a toss against Alabama, draw in all 11 defenders then find a wide-open Darius Slayton in the end zone. I would say don't get your hopes up, but Auburn pulled off the Johnson jump pass against the Tide last season.
If Auburn is to use Whitlow's arm this season, I would expect it in a similar fashion to Ryan Davis' touchdown throw against Arkansas last season. Malzahn has never been one to care about who he's playing when he wants to toss in a trick play. It could honestly be against Liberty.
8. Yes or no on Kelly Bryant to Auburn?
See Trey's question for more on this. But if I'm an Auburn fan, there's no reason to not want a proven guy like Bryant on my team. You just worry about creating more frustration in the quarterback room, as Bryant earning the starting job would likely push out at least one other player.
From @ColeMcCauley8 on Twitter:
9. With high profile recruits like Nate Craig-Myers, Kyle Davis and Byron Cowart leaving the program in the last few years...do you think Auburn/the staff has a problem developing highly touted talent or is it just a case of overhyped and dominant high school recruits not being able to put things together at the next level?
I'll dish out a big maybe to both sides of that question.
In terms of the former Tigers mentioned, it's a mixed bag. Davis had off-the-field issues galore and Cowart's work ethic could never get up to par. But it does make you wonder about the coaching staff's ability to motivate. To me, it's more about the players.
Craig-Myers was simply being overtaken by the young talent of Seth Williams and Anthony Schwartz.
Malzahn has arguably the most talented lot of freshmen of his entire tenure, so the next two seasons or should bring more clarity about his ability to develop great high school prospects.
From @ForeverAuburn on Twitter:
10. What is Stidham's completion percentage on deep throws against power 5 teams?
Again, sorry for leaving you hanging last week. This one took a good bit of film study, but I really enjoyed putting it together.
The big takeaways:
- Stidham's deep-ball prowess declined when Kyle Davis was kicked off the team — at least from an attempts standpoint.
- After his 2017 midseason tear, Stidham has been less trigger happy and more prone to overthrows.
- The QB was enamored with Darius Slayton as a vertical target at the end of last year.
- Stidham should have seven or eight more touchdowns as a Tiger. On most overthrows, the receiver has beaten the coverage.
Here's the game-by-game look at the quarterback's deep attempts. For this, we'll define a deep ball as 25-plus yards on a downfield shot. I omitted some 25-yarders to Will Hastings and Nate Craig-Myers, because those were crossing routes not designed to go the distance. Also, Anthony Schwartz's 33-yard wheel route against LSU didn't count, either.
I'm defining deep balls as Stidham stepping up in the pocket, maybe tapping the ball with his left hand, and just launching it. Below, each deep attempt includes the reason for the incompletion and the intended receiver.
I tried to turn this into an Excel sheet like my professional beat-writing buddies, but failed. I'm admittedly not very good with those, but I'll continue to learn how to construct more visually appealing pieces — you should try me with a similar question later this year. The bullets are in chronological order from kickoff.
I also included UCF because they're really good.
2017 at Clemson (0-5):
- Overthrow incompletion Ryan Davis
- Great PBU incompletion Eli Stove
- Bad read incompletion Kyle Davis
- Miscommunication incompletion Will Hastings
- Overthrow incompletion Eli Stove
2017 at Missouri (3-4, TD):
- 58-yard completion Kyle Davis
- 46-yard completion Will Hastings
- Miscommunication incompletion Will Hastings
- 57-yard touchdown Nate Craig-Myers
2017 vs. Mississippi State (4-6, TD):
- Overthrow incompletion Kyle Davis
- 49-yard completion Darius Slayton
- 47-yard touchdown Will Hastings
- 57-yard completion Eli Stove
- Jump-ball incompletion Darius Slayton
- 52-yard completion Kyle Davis
2017 vs. Ole Miss (1-4):
- Overthrow incompletion Nate Craig-Myers
- 31-yard completion Kyle Davis
- Bad read incompletion Darius Slayton
- Bad read incompletion Kyle Davis
2017 at LSU (2-8, TD):
- Great PBU incompletion Eli Stove
- 49-yd TD Will Hastings
- Bad read incompletion Eli Stove
- 25-yd completion Darius Slayton
- Bad read incompletion Darius Slayton
- Drop incompletion Darius Slayton
- Bad read incompletion Darius Slayton
- Jump-ball incompletion Sal Cannella
2017 at Arkansas (1-2):
- 28-yard completion Nate Craig-Myers
- Bad read incompletion Ryan Davis
2017 at Texas A&M (2-5, TD):
- Bad read incompletion Eli Stove
- Overthrow incompletion Darius Slayton
- 53-yd TD Darius Slayton
- 49-yd completion Darius Slayton
- Overthrow incompletion Will Hastings
- PI 1st down Darius Slayton
2017 vs. Georgia (in Auburn) (1-1):
- Darius Slayton 42-yd TD
2017 vs. Alabama (0-2):
- Overthrow incompletion Darius Slayton
- Drop incompletion Darius Slayton
2017 vs. Georgia (SEC Championship) (0-3, INT):
- Overthrow interception Darius Slayton (didn’t actually count, but still a bad pass)
- Overthrow incompletion Darius Slayton
- Overthrow incompletion Darius Slayton
2017 vs. UCF (1-4):
- Bad read incompletion Darius Slayton
- Good PBU incompletion Darius Slayton
- 29-yard completion Darius Slayton
- PI 1st down incompletion Darius Slayton
- Overthrow incompletion Darius Slayton
2018 vs. Washington (0-1):
- Basically touchdown to Darius Slayton—ends up out of bounds
2018 vs. LSU (0-3):
- Overthrow incompletion Ryan Davis
- Great PBU incompletion Darius Slayton
- Overthrow incompletion Darius Slayton
2018 vs. Arkansas (0-2):
- Overthrow incompletion Darius Slayton
- Overthrow incompletion Anthony Schwartz
In conclusion: Jarrett Stidham on deep passes at Auburn against Power 5 opponents (and UCF): 15 of 50 for four touchdowns and a pick that didn't actually count. This season, he's 0 for 6 with some errant overthrow attempts.
Auburn's reeling offensive line can certainly be to blame. But to succeed moving forward, Auburn's offense needs to utilize underneath and quick throws to get the ball out before Stidham scrambles out, because he doesn't have the same time in the pocket to load up for a deep shot as he did in the middle of last season.
See the first question of this mailbag for a closer look at Stidham's lack of confidence under center this year.
From @JoshFisherPhoto on Twitter:
11. How do you think Auburn should prepare for its tough road schedule?
Some teams in college football are known as "half teams," meaning their offense and defense don't see eye-to-eye in terms of production.
Let's call Auburn a "two-thirds" team.
We now know the special teams is electric. Obviously, Kevin Steele's defense is among the best in the nation. If the offense can catch up, Auburn can return to looking like a national contender.
The Tigers can probably shore things up on Lindsey's side of the ball against Southern Miss. A primetime road tilt at Miss State isn't going to do them any favors, however it will likely be a litmus test, showing how good Auburn really is.
Pay attention to the offensive gameplan the next two weeks. If things change and Malzahn is making a concerted effort to mix up playcalling, Auburn should be fine. If things remain bland, Miss State may be the least of the Tigers' troubles.
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Nathan King, senior in journalism with a minor in business, is The Plainsman's sports editor.
