This Saturday, the Auburn Tigers are heading to Starkville to take on the Mississippi State Bulldogs. It's a new beginning on the Plains with the firing of Bryan Harsin and the promotion of Auburn alumnus Carnell "Cadillac" Williams to interim head coach.
With a sputtering offense that is 124th in the nation in turnover margin and a rush defense that is last in the conference, this season hasn’t gone the way Auburn fans would like. Many have already started looking forward to who will be Auburn’s next head coach, but the season isn’t over yet.
There are four games left on the Tigers’ schedule with bowl eligibility at stake. Williams has a tall task steering this ship back on course, sitting at 3-5 at rock bottom of the SEC West.
The Tigers have now lost four straight games and are coming off a 41-27 beatdown from the Arkansas Razorbacks. That was Auburn’s fourth conference loss this season, placing the Tigers last in the SEC West. Now, the Tigers have to face a MSU that is also coming off consecutive conference losses versus Kentucky and Alabama.
Auburn’s offense hasn’t found any consistency this season. The Tigers’ passing game ranks last in the SEC at 54.8% completion percentage, 10 interceptions (2nd most in the SEC), 21 sacks allowed (3rd most in the SEC) and six touchdowns (last in the SEC). The struggles do not end there for the offense. The Tigers’ have a 37.4% conversion rate on third downs.
For MSU, it’s been the same old Mike Leach air raid offense, averaging 321.6 passing yards per game and 23 touchdowns on the year.
MSU’s offense is led by junior quarterback Will Rogers. While its passing game is the bulk of the offense, it becomes predictable.
The key will be keeping the Bulldogs from early chunk plays, as their offense passes 64% of the time on first downs. The game plan for this game could go differently for Mississippi State, though. It could look to utilize the run against a defense that has given up 214.6 rushing yards a game.
Players to Watch
Auburn
Robbie Ashford (QB)
The biggest concern this season for Ashford has been turnovers. Last week, though, he was a different quarterback with what was probably his best performance of the season last week against Arkansas, not turning over the ball at all for the first time starting this season.
He threw for 285 yards on 24-of-33 completions for one touchdown and rushed for 87 yards on 19 attempts. The redshirt freshman QB seems to be finding a comfort zone n the Tigers’ passing offense.
Ja’Varrius Johnson (WR)
Last year against the Bulldogs, Johnson caught four balls for 102 yards receiving and 57 yards rushing for one TD.
This year could go similarly for Johnson, but he is looking even better this season with 399 yards receiving on the season. The junior needs to play a crucial role in the Tigers’ offense this week for them to have success moving the ball down field.
Nehemiah Pritchett (DB)
Pritchett and the rest of the secondary are going to need to continue to not give up big plays through the air this week. He hasn’t gotten an interception this year, but that could change this week. He’ll have plenty of opportunities dealing with coach Mike Leach’s air raid offense.
Mississippi State
Will Rogers (QB)
Last year against Auburn, Rogers diced up the Tiger secondary in the second half. He threw for 415 yards, six touchdowns and completed 44-of-55 passing attempts.He is not slowing down any this season, as he has thrown 380 more passes, 47.5 per game.
Dillon Johnson (RB)
Johnson has been a bit underrated, as he has quietly averaged six yards a carry this season for 407 yards rushing. If Leach changes up his offense to a run-first team for this week, then those numbers might increase even more for Johnson. Even if that doesn’t happen, he’ll still be a receiving threat coming out of the backfield (31 catches for 215 yards).
Nathaniel Watson (LB)
So far, the senior linebacker has gotten to the quarterback four times this year and has 68 total tackles. He could cause nightmares for Auburn’s offensive line that has struggled to keep a clean pocket for its quarterback.
Keys to Victory
Auburn
For Auburn to have a chance in this conference matchup, the Tigers need to hit some play action plays early to help open up the run game for their backs. That’ll help the Tigers control the clock and stay in this game. Ashford needs to continue to protect the ball and make smart decisions throwing.
Running the ball is the Tigers overall strength and should be a huge focus for their offense under Williams, the former RB coach. Williams in control could mean bigger workloads for Tank Bigsby and Jarquez Hunter. They’ll need to have big chunk plays rushing.
Defensively, Auburn can't allow Rogers to get comfortable in the pocket. The defense needs to have pressure on Rogers the whole game. The Tigers need to take away his favorite targets as well: Rara Thomas (30 catches, 456 yards) and Caleb Ducking (35 catches, 36 yards and seven TDs).
Menatlly, the Tigers need to drown out the ring of the cowbells and make a statement early to silence that hostile environment there in Starkville. Auburn doesn’t need to panic early if it wants a second conference win.
Mississippi State
Look for MSU to try to make some big throws down field. Its offensive line will need to protect Rogers and allow him to make plays for the Bulldog offense. Their offensive line has the potential bully Auburn in the trenches this game. They should look to rush the ball with Johnson and gash Auburn’s defense with chunk plays all game long.
On the other end, their defense needs to force Ashford to make those same mistakes he did early in the year. MSU's defensive front should try to blow up Auburn’s offensive line by getting pressure on the QB and RBs.
Finally, it needs to get going early and feed into the home-field advantage and cause chaos for this struggling Auburn team. Stick to rushing the ball and not allowing Auburn' defense to get in a rhythm.
MSU has the opportunity for bounce-back win this game to clinch postseason berth, while Auburn can seize momentum as the program is at a turning point after a change in head coach and athletic director this week.
The game kicks off on Saturday at 6:30 p.m. CST at Davis-Wade Stadium in Starkville, MS and will be broadcast on ESPN2.
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Jac Myrick is a journalism major from Talladega, Alabama. This is his second year at the Plainsman after joining in the fall of 2022.
